Household Consumption, Imports, and Investment Activity in Uzbekistan

Abstract

 This thesis examines the relationship between household consumption expenditure, imports of goods and services, and gross capital formation in Uzbekistan during 2016Q1–2025Q4. The study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach using quarterly macroeconomic data to estimate the long-run relationship among the variables. The empirical findings indicate that household consumption expenditure and imports positively and significantly affect gross capital formation in the long run. The results suggest that stronger domestic demand and productive imports contribute positively to investment activity and capital accumulation in Uzbekistan. The study highlights the importance of sustainable domestic demand and investment-supporting trade activity for long-run economic development.