Trade Volume and Economic Growth in Uzbekistan

Abstract

This thesis examines the relationship between trade volume and econo-mic growth in Uzbekistan during 2016Q1–2025Q4. The study applies the Autoregressi-ve Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach using quarterly macroeconomic data to evaluate both long-run and short-run relationships between aggregate trade activity and real GDP. The estimation results indicate that trade volume has a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth in Uzbekistan. The findings also confirm the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. The results highlight the importance of trade integration, external economic activity, and market expansion in supporting sustainable economic development in Uzbekistan.