Abstract
This paper examines why performance budgeting misstates the cost of public services when the fiscal risks of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public-private partnerships (PPPs) are left outside it, and how these risks can be integrated. Drawing on International Monetary Fund (IMF) and OECD standards, cross-country evidence on contingent liabilities and official documents on Uzbekistan, it shows that the omitted exposures are large, overlap with budget programs and bias program cost and performance information. The paper proposes a three-step framework of perimeter mapping, risk-adjusted program costing and risk-linked performance indicators, and formulates a testable hypothesis on deviations between budgeted and realized fiscal costs.
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