HYDROGEOLOGICAL DYNAMICS AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF GROUNDWATER IN THE KITOB-SHAXRISABZ DEPOSIT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

Abstract

This paper evaluates the hydrodynamic trends and spatial distribution of the Kitob-Shaxrisabz groundwater deposit in Uzbekistan under changing climatic conditions from 2020 to 2025. Utilizing systematic data from 133 optimized high-precision observation wells, the study establishes a direct correlation between volatile regional precipitation regimes and fluctuating water table levels. Structural lithofacies analysis reveals that the deposit is divided into three distinct operational hydrogeological zones: a peripheral foothill recharge belt, a central high-yielding transit core, and a western discharge margin prone to localized soil salinization. The climate-hydrodynamic trend model highlights extreme vulnerability to drought, with the static water table plunging to a depth of 5.2 meters during the severe 2023 dry cycle. This depletion is heavily exacerbated by intensive agricultural abstraction and unmanaged regional drilling. To preserve freshwater security and mitigate saline front encroachment, this study proposes critical management strategies, including the implementation of subsurface drip irrigation, managed aquifer recharge (MAR) structures, and a digital telemetric early warning monitoring model.